Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia's 9th District
Clyde is very likely to win: Clyde wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Gegen (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Clyde (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+26.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Clyde is very likely to win: Clyde wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Gegen (D)
1%
chance of winning
Clyde (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+26.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Caitlyn Gegen
Community organizer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $43.4K
- From individuals
- $35.2K
- Spent
- $38.7K
- Cash on hand
- $4.7K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Andrew Clyde
Incumbent U.S. Representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $728.2K
- From individuals
- $588K
- Spent
- $671.1K
- Cash on hand
- $153.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.62 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.31 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.31 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 807,178
- People per km²
- 90
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 17%
- Black 12%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
392,816 votes · R+38.0✓ Andrew S. Clyde (R)69.0%
Tambrei Cash (D)31.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
397,849 two-party votes · R+34.5 · R+33.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.3%
Kamala Harris (D)32.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
294,138 votes · R+44.7✓ Andrew S Clyde (R)72.4%
MICHAEL âMIKEâ FORD (D)27.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
372,547 votes · R+57.2✓ Andrew Clyde (R)78.6%
Devin Pandy (D)21.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
359,678 two-party votes · R+32.9 · R+37.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.4%
Joe Biden (D)33.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
282,573 votes · R+59.0✓ Doug Collins (R)79.5%
Josh McCall (D)20.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
256,535 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Doug Collins (R)100.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
273,296 two-party votes · R+42.3 · R+44.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)28.9%