Cross-party nominations
A candidate can be nominated by several parties, such as Working Families or the Independent Party, and the ballot lists all of them next to one name. The forecast counts the candidate's votes once, under their main party.
Oregon › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Oregon's 2nd District
FusionBentz is very likely to win: Bentz wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Beck (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Bentz (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+22.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+14
- Partisan lean
- R+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bentz is very likely to win: Bentz wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Beck (D)
1%
chance of winning
Bentz (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+22.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+35 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Chris Beck
Former state representative from the 12th district (1997–2003)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $255.8K
- From individuals
- $239.9K
- Spent
- $130.4K
- Cash on hand
- $125.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Cliff Bentz
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.3M
- From individuals
- $589.2K
- Spent
- $875.8K
- Cash on hand
- $1.5M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.04 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.45 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.45 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+27: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 720,238
- People per km²
- 4
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 60%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
351,510 votes · R+32.1✓ Cliff Bentz (R)63.9%
Dan Ruby (D)32.8%
Michael Kurt Stettler (CST)3.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
356,818 two-party votes · R+27.8 · R+26.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.9%
Kamala Harris (D)36.1%
2022
308,377 votes · R+35.3✓ Cliff Bentz (R)67.6%
Joe Yetter (D)32.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
457,433 votes · R+23.7✓ Cliff Bentz (R)59.9%
Alex Spenser (D)36.9%
Robert Werch (L)3.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
407,495 two-party votes · R+25.1 · R+29.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.6%
Joe Biden (D)37.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
368,709 votes · R+17.7✓ Greg Walden (R)56.3%
Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D)39.4%
Mark R Roberts (I)4.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
380,739 votes · R+43.8✓ Greg Walden (R)71.7%
James "jim" Crary (D)28.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
343,852 two-party votes · R+29.3 · R+31.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.4%