Democratic
Cinde Wirth
Anthropologist and nominee for this district in 2022 and 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $37K
- From individuals
- $32.1K
- Spent
- $30.4K
- Cash on hand
- $7.2K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Indiana › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana's 6th District
Shreve is very likely to win: Shreve wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Wirth (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Shreve (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+23.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+15
- Partisan lean
- R+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Shreve is very likely to win: Shreve wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Wirth (D)
1%
chance of winning
Shreve (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+25.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+14
- Partisan lean
- R+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jefferson Shreve
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.5M
- From individuals
- $145.8K
- Spent
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $1.6M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.81 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.83 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.83 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+33: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 764,603
- People per km²
- 90
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 60%of adults
- White 80%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 5%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
314,933 votes · R+33.7✓ Jefferson Shreve (R)63.9%
Cynthia "cinde" Wirth (D)31.7%
James Michael Sceniak (L)4.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
319,905 two-party votes · R+33.1 · R+31.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.6%
Kamala Harris (D)33.4%
2022
193,524 votes · R+35.1✓ Greg Pence (R)67.5%
CYNTHIA âCINDEâ WIRTH (D)32.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
328,213 votes · R+42.4✓ Greg Pence (R)68.7%
Jeannine Lee Lake (D)27.8%
Tom Ferkinhoff (L)3.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
328,110 two-party votes · R+32.6 · R+37.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.3%
Joe Biden (D)33.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
241,726 votes · R+32.0✓ Greg Pence (R)63.8%
Jeannine Lee Lake (D)32.9%
Tom Ferkinhoff (L)3.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
298,244 votes · R+44.3✓ Luke Messer (R)68.7%
Barry Welsh (D)26.5%
Rich Turvey (L)4.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
287,727 two-party votes · R+39.7 · R+41.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.2%