Democratic
Denise Powell
Candidate training group co-founder
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $2.7M
- From individuals
- $2.3M
- Spent
- $1.7M
- Cash on hand
- $997.4K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Nebraska › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nebraska's 2nd District
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (99%).
Powell is very likely to win: Powell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Powell (D)
99%
chance of winning
Harding (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+14.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- 2in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (98%).
Powell is very likely to win: Powell wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Powell (D)
98%
chance of winning
Harding (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+14.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Brinker Harding
Omaha city councilor from the 6th district (2017–present)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $2.7M
- From individuals
- $1.6M
- Spent
- $2.1M
- Cash on hand
- $602.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.07 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.39 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Powell | Harding | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs | Oct 2–Oct 5 | 800 LV | 50 | 38 | D+12 | D+18.5 |
| SurveyUSA for Grant Forbes, LLC | Sep 8–Sep 13 | 182 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4 | D+3.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 5, 2026.
The district
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 662,687
- People per km²
- 205
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 42%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 9%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
314,567 votes · R+1.9✓ Don Bacon (R)50.9%
Tony Vargas (D)49.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
312,443 two-party votes · D+4.7 · D+6.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.3%
Donald Trump (R)47.7%
2022
219,470 votes · R+2.7✓ Don Bacon (R)51.3%
Tony Vargas (D)48.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
336,962 votes · R+4.7✓ Don Bacon (R)50.8%
Kara Eastman (D)46.2%
Tyler Schaeffer (L)3.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
307,692 two-party votes · D+6.4 · D+1.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.2%
Donald Trump (R)46.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
248,485 votes · R+2.0✓ Don Bacon (R)51.0%
Kara Eastman (D)49.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
288,308 votes · R+1.2✓ Don Bacon (R)48.9%
Brad Ashford (D)47.7%
Steven Laird (L)3.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
250,474 two-party votes · R+2.1 · R+4.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.9%