Democratic
Nancy Lacore
Former chief of the U.S. Navy Reserve (2024–2025)
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $4.4M
- From individuals
- $4.2M
- Spent
- $3.9M
- Cash on hand
- $552.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
South Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina's 1st District
Honeycutt is favored to win: Honeycutt wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Lacore (D)
39%
chance of winning
Honeycutt (R)
61%
- Average margin
- R+1.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 5in our database
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (43% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Lacore (D)
43%
chance of winning
Honeycutt (R)
57%
- Average margin
- R+1.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 5in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jenny Costa Honeycutt
Charleston County councilor
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $556.4K
- From individuals
- $451K
- Spent
- $477.9K
- Cash on hand
- $78.5K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Libertarian
Bill Reeside
Nuclear engineer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $115.4K
- From individuals
- $9.9K
- Spent
- $109.5K
- Cash on hand
- $5.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.34 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.29 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 5 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Lacore | Honeycutt | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQRD-sponsored | Sep 30–Oct 4 | 400 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 | D+2.1 |
| co/efficient for Thank You For Your Attention To This Matter PAC, which supports HoneycuttR-sponsored | Sep 30–Oct 1 | 837 LV | 40 | 46 | R+6 | D+1.0 |
| Public Policy Polling for The Bench, which supports LacoreD-sponsored | Sep 9–Sep 10 | 536 RV | 40 | 41 | R+1 | R+4.5 |
| GQR for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Jul 15–Jul 22 | 400 LV | 48 | 50 | R+2 | R+6.1 |
| GQR for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Jul 15–Jul 22 | 400 LV | 41 | 43 | R+2 | R+6.1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 4, 2026.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 754,922
- People per km²
- 82
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 37%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 18%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
390,777 votes · R+16.6✓ Nancy Mace (R)58.2%
Michael B. Moore (D)41.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
391,140 two-party votes · R+13.2 · R+11.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.6%
Kamala Harris (D)43.4%
2022
273,466 votes · R+14.1✓ Nancy Mace (R)56.4%
Annie Andrews (D)42.5%
Joseph Oddo (OTH)1.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
427,111 votes · R+1.3✓ Nancy Mace (R)50.6%
Joe Cunningham (D)49.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
421,198 two-party votes · R+7.6 · R+12.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.8%
Joe Biden (D)46.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
287,433 votes · D+1.4✓ Joe Cunningham (D)50.6%
Katie Arrington (R)49.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
325,170 votes · R+22.8✓ Mark Sanford (R)58.6%
Dimitri Cherny (D)36.8%
Michael Grier Jr (L)3.6%
Albert Travison (OTH)0.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
362,669 two-party votes · R+15.4 · R+17.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.3%