DemocraticIncumbent
Deborah Ross
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2M
- From individuals
- $1.1M
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $1.4M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
North Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina's 2nd District
Ross is very likely to win: Ross wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ross (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Douglass (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+42.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+34 to D+52
- Partisan lean
- D+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ross is very likely to win: Ross wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ross (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Douglass (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+44.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+33 to D+56
- Partisan lean
- D+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Eugene Douglass
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.17 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 767,252
- People per km²
- 717
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 54%
- White, no degree
- 20%of adults
- White 53%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 23%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
405,517 votes · D+35.4✓ Deborah K. Ross (D)66.3%
Alan D. Swain (R)31.6%
Michael Dublin (G)2.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
400,031 two-party votes · D+34.5 · D+36.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)67.3%
Donald Trump (R)32.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
294,869 votes · D+29.4✓ Deborah K Ross (D)64.7%
Christine E Villaverde (R)35.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
990,762 votes · D+28.8✓ Deborah K Ross (D)63.0%
Alan D Swain (R)34.8%
Jeff Matemu (L)2.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
402,297 two-party votes · D+36.1 · D+31.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)68.0%
Donald Trump (R)32.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
331,670 votes · R+5.6✓ George Holding (R)51.3%
Linda Coleman (D)45.8%
Jeff Matemu (L)2.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
390,567 votes · R+13.4✓ George Holding (R)56.7%
John P McNeil (D)43.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
340,283 two-party votes · D+31.1 · D+28.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)65.5%
Donald Trump (R)34.5%