Democratic
Ben Ambrose
Marketing executive
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $85.1K
- From individuals
- $84.8K
- Spent
- $62.8K
- Cash on hand
- $21.9K
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
Michigan › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan's 2nd District
Moolenaar is very likely to win: Moolenaar wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ambrose (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Moolenaar (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+24.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Moolenaar is very likely to win: Moolenaar wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Ambrose (D)
1%
chance of winning
Moolenaar (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+24.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+13
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
John Moolenaar
Incumbent U.S. representative (2015–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2M
- From individuals
- $1.3M
- Spent
- $1.7M
- Cash on hand
- $1.6M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.6 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.83 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.83 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 785,638
- People per km²
- 23
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
428,550 votes · R+34.5✓ John R. Moolenaar (R)65.1%
Michael Lynch (D)31.7%
Ben Dejong (L)1.6%
Scott Adams (CST)1.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
434,423 two-party votes · R+30.6 · R+29.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.3%
Kamala Harris (D)34.7%
2022
339,273 votes · R+29.9✓ John R Moolenaar (R)63.6%
Jerry Hilliard (D)34.3%
Nathan Hewer (L)2.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
403,247 votes · R+21.5✓ Bill Huizenga (R)59.2%
Bryan Berghoef (D)38.2%
Max Riekse (L)1.3%
Jean-Michel Creviere (G)0.7%
Gerald T van Sickle (CST)0.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
406,603 two-party votes · R+28.8 · R+33.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.4%
Joe Biden (D)35.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
305,463 votes · R+12.6✓ Bill Huizenga (R)55.3%
Rob Davidson (D)43.0%
Ronald E Graeser (CST)1.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
339,328 votes · R+31.6✓ Bill Huizenga (R)62.6%
Dennis B Murphy (D)32.5%
Erwin J Haas (L)2.4%
Matthew A Brady (G)1.6%
Graeser, Ronald E. (OTH)0.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
325,920 two-party votes · R+29.9 · R+32.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.0%