All-party U.S. House election
For 2026, all U.S. House candidates of every party share one ballot on November 3. A candidate who wins more than half the vote is elected; otherwise the top two meet on December 12, 2026.
Louisiana › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Louisiana's 1st District
All-partyScalise is very likely to win: Scalise wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Jewett (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Scalise (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+30.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+39 to R+22
- Partisan lean
- R+39
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Scalise is very likely to win: Scalise wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Jewett (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Scalise (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+31.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+43 to R+20
- Partisan lean
- R+39
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticCandidate
Lauren Jewett
Special education teacher
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $580.5K
- From individuals
- $577.2K
- Spent
- $403K
- Cash on hand
- $177.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbentCandidate
Steve Scalise
Incumbent U.S. representative and House Majority Leader
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $11M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $12.2M
- Cash on hand
- $3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanCandidate
Randall Arrington
Navy veteran
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.12 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+39: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 764,471
- People per km²
- 32
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 12%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
357,720 votes · R+47.1✓ Steve Scalise (R)66.8%
Mel Manuel (D)24.0%
Randall Arrington (R)5.0%
Ross Shales (R)2.3%
J. "frankie" Hyers (I)1.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
355,751 two-party votes · R+39.1 · R+37.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.5%
Kamala Harris (D)30.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
244,044 votes · R+48.6✓ Steve Scalise (R)72.8%
Katie Darling (D)25.2%
Howard Kearney (L)2.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
374,369 votes · R+48.1✓ Steve Scalise (R)72.2%
Lee Ann Dugas (D)25.3%
Howard Kearney (L)2.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
380,135 two-party votes · R+40.2 · R+44.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.1%
Joe Biden (D)29.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
269,325 votes · R+62.6✓ Steve Scalise (R)71.5%
Tammy M Savoie (D)16.4%
Lee Ann Dugas (D)6.9%
"jim" Francis (D)3.2%
Howard Kearney (L)1.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
326,788 votes · R+70.7✓ Steve Scalise (R)74.6%
Lee Ann Dugas (D)12.8%
Danil Ezekiel Faust (D)3.9%
Howard Kearney (L)2.9%
Joseph "joe" Swider (D)2.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
337,861 two-party votes · R+44.8 · R+47.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)72.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)27.6%