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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 2nd District
Rogers is clearly favored to win: Rogers wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Green (D)
13%
chance of winning
Rogers (R)
87%
- Average margin
- R+8.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Rogers is clearly favored to win: Rogers wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Green (D)
16%
chance of winning
Rogers (R)
84%
- Average margin
- R+8.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Amanda Green
Operations manager
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $348.1K
- From individuals
- $340.4K
- Spent
- $320.1K
- Cash on hand
- $28K
Money: FEC, through Jul 29, 2026.
Republican
Austin Rogers
Former general counsel to U.S. Senator Rick Scott
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.3M
- From individuals
- $775.1K
- Spent
- $960.6K
- Cash on hand
- $340.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 791,894
- People per km²
- 24
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 63%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 22%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
402,280 votes · R+23.3✓ Neal P. Dunn (R)61.6%
Yen Bailey (D)38.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
403,569 two-party votes · R+18.1 · R+16.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.0%
Kamala Harris (D)41.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
301,389 votes · R+19.6✓ Neal P Dunn (R)59.8%
Al Lawson, Jr (D)40.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
328,802 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Neal P Dunn (R)92.9%
Writein (—)7.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
434,043 two-party votes · R+9.2 · R+13.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.6%
Joe Biden (D)45.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
295,564 votes · R+34.9✓ Neal Dunn (R)67.4%
Bob Rackleff (D)32.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
343,866 votes · R+38.4✓ Neal Dunn (R)67.2%
Walter Dartland (D)29.9%
Rob Lapham (L)2.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
383,491 two-party votes · R+12.2 · R+14.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.9%