Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
California › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
California's 11th District
D vs DTop twoSame-party general election. Two Democrats advanced to November: the seat stays Democratic.
Scott Wiener has no major-party opponent.
Scott Wiener has no major-party opponent.
How this race is decided
The candidates
Democratic
Scott Wiener
State senator from the 11th district (2016–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $4.6M
- From individuals
- $4.5M
- Spent
- $3.3M
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Democratic
Connie Chan
San Francisco supervisor from the 1st district (2021–present)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $1.1M
- From individuals
- $940.7K
- Spent
- $732.2K
- Cash on hand
- $362.1K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Wiener | R | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research for Jobs And Democracy super PAC, which supports WienerD-sponsored | Sep 15–Sep 17 | 658 LV | 45 | — | — | |
| Tavern Research for Jobs And Democracy super PAC, which supports WienerD-sponsored | Sep 15–Sep 17 | 658 LV | 53 | — | — | |
| Lake Research Partners for Chan's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 14–Jul 19 | — LV | 45 | — | — |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 17, 2026.
The district
Lean D+72: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 719,841
- People per km²
- 1,226
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 64%
- White, no degree
- 9%of adults
- White 41%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 5%
- Asian 32%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
339,096 votes · D+62.1✓ Nancy Pelosi (D)81.0%
Bruce Lou (R)19.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
346,331 two-party votes · D+70.6 · D+72.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)85.3%
Donald Trump (R)14.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
263,065 votes · D+67.9✓ Nancy Pelosi (D)84.0%
John Dennis (R)16.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
371,356 votes · D+46.0✓ Mark Desaulnier (D)73.0%
Nisha Sharma (R)27.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
385,892 two-party votes · D+76.1 · D+71.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)88.0%
Donald Trump (R)12.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
275,681 votes · D+48.3✓ Mark Desaulnier (D)74.1%
John Fitzgerald (R)25.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
298,209 votes · D+44.1✓ Mark Desaulnier (D)72.1%
Roger Allen Petersen (R)27.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
344,428 two-party votes · D+81.3 · D+79.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)90.6%
Donald Trump (R)9.4%