DemocraticIncumbent
Jonathan Jackson
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $514.7K
- From individuals
- $303.7K
- Spent
- $535.9K
- Cash on hand
- $32.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Illinois › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois's 1st District
Jackson is very likely to win: Jackson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Jackson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Maxwell (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+42.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+33 to D+52
- Partisan lean
- D+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Jackson is very likely to win: Jackson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Jackson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Maxwell (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+41.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+30 to D+54
- Partisan lean
- D+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Christian Maxwell
Entrepreneur
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $88.1K
- Spent
- $39.1K
- Cash on hand
- $55.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.92 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.49 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.49 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 734,185
- People per km²
- 456
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 23%of adults
- White 37%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 47%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
316,552 votes · D+31.7✓ Jonathan L. Jackson (D)65.8%
Marcus Lewis (R)34.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
322,141 two-party votes · D+32.1 · D+33.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)66.0%
Donald Trump (R)34.0%
2022
237,608 votes · D+34.1✓ Jonathan L Jackson (D)67.0%
Eric Carlson (R)32.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
325,550 votes · D+47.7✓ Bobby L Rush (D)73.7%
Philanise White (R)26.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
364,376 two-party votes · D+42.8 · D+38.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)71.4%
Donald Trump (R)28.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
258,124 votes · D+57.6✓ Bobby L Rush (D)73.4%
Jimmy Lee Tillman II (R)19.7%
Thomas Rudbeck (I)6.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
316,740 votes · D+48.2✓ Bobby L Rush (D)73.9%
August "o'Neill" Deuser (R)25.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
360,572 two-party votes · D+51.9 · D+49.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)75.9%
Donald Trump (R)24.1%
Also on the ballot in Illinois
Neighboring districts
IL-2Donna MillerMichael Noack>99%Dem.>99%Dem. IL-4Patty GarciaLupe Castillo>99%Dem.>99%Dem. IL-6Sean CastenNiki Conforti99%Dem.95%Dem. IL-7La Shawn FordChad Koppie>99%Dem.>99%Dem. IL-11Bill FosterJeff Walter>99%Dem.98%Dem. IL-14Lauren UnderwoodJames Marter99%Dem.94%Dem. IL-16Paul NolleyDarin LaHood98%Rep.95%Rep.