DemocraticIncumbent
Bennie Thompson
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $928K
- From individuals
- $225K
- Spent
- $1.2M
- Cash on hand
- $1.4M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Mississippi › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Mississippi's 2nd District
Thompson is very likely to win: Thompson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Thompson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Eller (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+29.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+19 to D+39
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Thompson is very likely to win: Thompson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Thompson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Eller (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+29.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+17 to D+43
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.58 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.18 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.18 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 712,181
- People per km²
- 15
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 22%
- White, no degree
- 25%of adults
- White 31%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 64%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
286,840 votes · D+24.0✓ Bennie G. Thompson (D)62.0%
Ron Eller (R)38.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
283,579 two-party votes · D+20.7 · D+22.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.3%
Donald Trump (R)39.7%
2022
185,448 votes · D+19.4✓ Bennie G Thompson (D)59.7%
Brian Flowers (R)40.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
297,234 votes · D+32.0✓ Bennie G Thompson (D)66.0%
Brian Flowers (R)34.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
339,626 two-party votes · D+27.7 · D+23.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)63.9%
Donald Trump (R)36.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
221,379 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Bennie G Thompson (D)71.8%
Troy Ray (I)21.7%
Irving Harris (REF)6.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
286,626 votes · D+39.4✓ Bennie G Thompson (D)67.1%
John Bouie II (R)29.1%
Troy Ray (I)2.4%
Johnny McLeod (REF)1.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
329,132 two-party votes · D+27.4 · D+25.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)63.7%
Donald Trump (R)36.3%