DemocraticIncumbent
Don Davis
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4.3M
- From individuals
- $2.2M
- Spent
- $987.9K
- Cash on hand
- $3.6M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
North Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina's 1st District
Davis is favored to win: Davis wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Davis (D)
71%
chance of winning
Buckhout (R)
29%
- Average margin
- D+3.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- 7in our database
Davis is favored to win: Davis wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Davis (D)
65%
chance of winning
Buckhout (R)
35%
- Average margin
- D+2.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- 7in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Laurie Buckhout
Former acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy (2025) and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $4.7M
- From individuals
- $1M
- Spent
- $2.9M
- Cash on hand
- $1.9M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Libertarian
Tom Bailey
Contractor, former chair of the Guilford County Libertarian Party, and perennial candidate
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.29 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 7 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Davis | Buckhout | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient for Buckout's campaignR-sponsored | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 623 LV | 42 | 43 | R+1 | D+6.8 |
| Neighborhood Research for Rick Shaftan, who supports Buckout's campaignR-sponsored | Oct 1–Oct 6 | 303 LV | 51 | 41 | D+10 | D+13.7 |
| GQR for Davis' campaignD-sponsored | Sep 29–Oct 4 | 500 LV | 47 | 39 | D+8 | D+4.1 |
| GBAO for the House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 500 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7 | D+1.8 |
| GQR for Davis' campaignD-sponsored | Jun 22–Jun 28 | 500 LV | 45 | 41 | D+4 | D+0.7 |
| co/efficient for the National Republican Congressional CommitteeR-sponsored | Apr 25–Apr 29 | 842 LV | 41 | 41 | Even | D+9.3 |
| GQR for Davis' campaignD-sponsored | Jan 29–Feb 2 | 500 LV | 42 | 39 | D+3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 8, 2026.
The district
Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 750,621
- People per km²
- 20
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 57%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 31%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
376,305 votes · D+1.7✓ Donald G. Davis (D)49.5%
Laurie Buckhout (R)47.8%
Tom Bailey (L)2.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
410,355 two-party votes · R+11.6 · R+10.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.8%
Kamala Harris (D)44.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
257,767 votes · D+4.7✓ Don Davis (D)52.4%
Sandy Smith (R)47.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
697,497 votes · D+8.4✓ G K Butterfield (D)54.2%
Sandy Smith (R)45.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
443,592 two-party votes · R+5.9 · R+10.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.9%
Joe Biden (D)47.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
272,654 votes · D+39.7✓ G K Butterfield (D)69.8%
Roger W Allison (R)30.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
350,699 votes · D+40.6✓ G K Butterfield (D)68.6%
H Powell Dew Jr (R)29.0%
J J Summerell (L)2.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
405,007 two-party votes · R+3.2 · R+5.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.4%