Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
Washington › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Washington's 4th District
Top twoMcKinney is very likely to win: McKinney wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Duresky (D)
2%
chance of winning
McKinney (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+14.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
McKinney is clearly favored to win: McKinney wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Duresky (D)
8%
chance of winning
McKinney (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+12.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
John Duresky
Combat veteran, retired Air Force major and project manager
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $179K
- From individuals
- $170.7K
- Spent
- $144.7K
- Cash on hand
- $34.3K
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
Republican
Amanda McKinney
Yakima County commissioner (2020–present)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $1.3M
- From individuals
- $958.2K
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $166.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.09 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 776,904
- People per km²
- 16
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 50%
- Hispanic 41%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
295,052 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Dan Newhouse (R)52.0%
Jerrod Sessler (R)46.2%
Writein (—)1.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
300,643 two-party votes · R+21.2 · R+19.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.6%
Kamala Harris (D)39.4%
2022
226,353 votes · R+36.0✓ Dan Newhouse (R)66.4%
Doug White (D)31.2%
Write-In (—)2.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
305,263 votes · R+32.6✓ Dan Newhouse (R)66.2%
Douglas E McKinley (D)33.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
398,211 two-party votes · R+16.0 · R+20.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.0%
Joe Biden (D)42.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
224,415 votes · R+25.6✓ Dan Newhouse (R)62.8%
Christine Brown (D)37.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
229,002 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Dan Newhouse (R)57.7%
Clint Didier (R)42.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
277,825 two-party votes · R+23.3 · R+25.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.4%