Democratic
Chelsey Hockett
Stay-at-home mom
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $35.3K
- Spent
- -$38K
- Cash on hand
- $47.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 5th District
Gooden is very likely to win: Gooden wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Hockett (D)
4%
chance of winning
Gooden (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+12.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Gooden is clearly favored to win: Gooden wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Hockett (D)
10%
chance of winning
Gooden (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+11.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Lance Gooden
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.5M
- From individuals
- $435K
- Spent
- $875.8K
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.07 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 805,433
- People per km²
- 81
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 46%
- Hispanic 31%
- Black 16%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
299,897 votes · R+28.2✓ Lance Gooden (R)64.1%
Ruth "truth" Torres (D)35.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
290,921 two-party votes · R+21.6 · R+20.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.8%
Kamala Harris (D)39.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
212,089 votes · R+30.7✓ Lance Gooden (R)63.9%
Tartisha Hill (D)33.9%
Kevin A Hale (L)2.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
280,413 votes · R+26.6✓ Lance Gooden (R)62.0%
Carolyn Salter (D)35.9%
Kevin A Hale (L)2.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
349,061 two-party votes · R+11.9 · R+16.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.9%
Joe Biden (D)44.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
209,461 votes · R+24.8✓ Lance Gooden (R)62.4%
Dan Wood (D)37.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
192,866 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jeb Hensarling (R)80.6%
Ken Ashby (L)19.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
262,494 two-party votes · R+22.4 · R+24.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.8%
Also on the ballot in Texas
Neighboring districts
TX-1Yolanda PrinceNathaniel Moran>99%Rep.>99%Rep. TX-6Danny MintonJake Ellzey99%Rep.94%Rep. TX-10Caitlin RourkChris Gober98%Rep.96%Rep. TX-17Casey ShepardPete Sessions97%Rep.92%Rep. TX-24Kevin BurgeBeth Van Duyne84%Rep.75%Rep. TX-30Frederick Haynes IIIEverett Jackson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. TX-32Dan BarriosJace Yarbrough84%Rep.80%Rep. TX-33Colin AllredPatrick Gillespie>99%Dem.>99%Dem.