Democratic
Manny Rutinel
Former state representative from the 32nd district (2023–2026)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $4.3M
- From individuals
- $4.2M
- Spent
- $3.7M
- Cash on hand
- $601.2K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Colorado › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado's 8th District
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (89%).
Rutinel is clearly favored to win: Rutinel wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Rutinel (D)
89%
chance of winning
Evans (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+7.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- 1in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (85%).
Rutinel is clearly favored to win: Rutinel wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Rutinel (D)
85%
chance of winning
Evans (R)
15%
- Average margin
- D+7.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Gabe Evans
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $6.9M
- From individuals
- $3.1M
- Spent
- $4.2M
- Cash on hand
- $2.7M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.04 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.05 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.05 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Rutinel | Evans | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin and Associates for Enhancing American Competitiveness, a conservative political nonprofit that supports EvansR-sponsored | Sep 16–Sep 17 | 400 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 | D+7.4 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 17, 2026.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 733,044
- People per km²
- 274
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 51%
- Hispanic 40%
- Black 2%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
333,616 votes · R+0.8✓ Gabe Evans (R)49.0%
Yadira Caraveo (D)48.2%
Chris Baum (OTH)1.7%
Susan Patricia Hall (OTH)1.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
335,159 two-party votes · R+1.9 · R+0.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.9%
Kamala Harris (D)49.1%
2022
236,501 votes · D+0.7✓ Yadira Caraveo (D)48.4%
Barbara Kirkmeyer (R)47.7%
Richard Ward (L)3.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
331,298 two-party votes · D+4.7 · D+0.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.3%
Donald Trump (R)47.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
256,231 two-party votes · R+2.0 · R+4.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.0%