Democratic
Justin Pearson
State representative from the 86th district (2023, 2023–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $3.6M
- From individuals
- $3.5M
- Spent
- $2.5M
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Tennessee › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee's 9th District
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (94%).
Taylor is clearly favored to win: Taylor wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Pearson (D)
6%
chance of winning
Taylor (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+9.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- 1in our database
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (94%).
Taylor is clearly favored to win: Taylor wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Pearson (D)
6%
chance of winning
Taylor (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+11.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Brent Taylor
State senator from the 31st district (2023–present) and candidate for the 7th district in 2002
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $1.5M
- From individuals
- $466K
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $417.4K
Money: FEC, through Jul 17, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.38 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Pearson | Taylor | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research Associates for Tennessee Rise PAC & Three Star PACD-sponsored | Sep 1–Sep 3 | 400 LV | 44 | 48 | R+4 | R+9.6 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 3, 2026.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 779,994
- People per km²
- 47
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 40%of adults
- White 55%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 31%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
223,703 votes · D+47.1✓ Steve Cohen (D)71.3%
Charlotte Bergmann (R)25.7%
Wendell "wells" Blankenship (—)1.7%
Dennis Clark (I)1.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
320,394 two-party votes · R+22.3 · R+20.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.2%
Kamala Harris (D)38.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
133,918 votes · D+45.5✓ Steve Cohen (D)70.0%
Charlotte Bergmann (R)26.2%
George Flinn (I)2.5%
Dennis Clark (I)0.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
242,880 votes · D+58.8✓ Steve Cohen (D)77.4%
Charlotte Bergmann (R)20.1%
Dennis Clark (I)1.6%
Bobby Lyons (I)0.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
323,121 two-party votes · R+11.0 · R+15.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.5%
Joe Biden (D)44.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
181,476 votes · D+61.2✓ Steve Cohen (D)80.0%
Charlotte Bergmann (R)19.2%
Leo Awgowhat (I)0.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
217,957 votes · D+61.3✓ Steve Cohen (D)78.7%
Wayne Alberson (R)18.9%
Paul Cook (I)2.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
265,998 two-party votes · R+9.4 · R+11.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.3%