Democratic
Dwayne Romero
Real estate company CEO and U.S. Army officer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $716.6K
- From individuals
- $354.4K
- Spent
- $632.4K
- Cash on hand
- $84.2K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Colorado › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado's 3rd District
Hurd is favored to win: Hurd wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Romero (D)
29%
chance of winning
Hurd (R)
71%
- Average margin
- R+3.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- 1in our database
Hurd is favored to win: Hurd wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Romero (D)
29%
chance of winning
Hurd (R)
71%
- Average margin
- R+3.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.76 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.96 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.96 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Romero | Hurd | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keating Research for Romero's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 21–Jul 23 | 500 LV | 45 | 46 | R+1 | R+3.9 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jul 23, 2026.
The district
Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 742,160
- People per km²
- 6
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 26%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
397,553 votes · R+5.2✓ Jeff Hurd (R)50.8%
Adam Frisch (D)45.8%
James Wiley (L)2.7%
Adam Withrow (OTH)0.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
396,569 two-party votes · R+10.0 · R+8.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.0%
Kamala Harris (D)45.0%
2022
327,282 votes · R+0.2✓ Lauren Boebert (R)50.1%
Adam Frisch (D)49.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
429,319 votes · R+6.4✓ Lauren Boebert (R)51.4%
Diane E Mitsch Bush (D)45.2%
John Ryan Keil (L)2.4%
Critter Milton (OTH)1.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
405,827 two-party votes · R+8.3 · R+12.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.1%
Joe Biden (D)45.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
336,201 votes · R+8.4✓ Scott R Tipton (R)51.5%
Diane Mitsch Bush (D)43.6%
Mary M Malarsie (I)3.2%
Gaylon Kent (L)1.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
374,037 votes · R+15.0✓ Scott R Tipton (R)54.6%
Gail Schwartz (D)40.3%
Gaylon Kent (L)5.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
331,664 two-party votes · R+15.1 · R+17.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.4%