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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 26th District
Díaz-Balart is clearly favored to win: Díaz-Balart wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Locklin (D)
20%
chance of winning
Díaz-Balart (R)
80%
- Average margin
- R+6.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Díaz-Balart is favored to win: Díaz-Balart wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Locklin (D)
25%
chance of winning
Díaz-Balart (R)
75%
- Average margin
- R+6.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Nicole Locklin
Lawyer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $560.6K
- From individuals
- $308.7K
- Spent
- $428.6K
- Cash on hand
- $132K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Mario Díaz-Balart
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.6M
- From individuals
- $1.5M
- Spent
- $2.4M
- Cash on hand
- $2.1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.91 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 767,389
- People per km²
- 317
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 6%of adults
- White 13%
- Hispanic 74%
- Black 8%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
306,271 votes · R+41.8✓ Mario Diaz-Balart (R)70.9%
Joey Atkins (D)29.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
326,441 two-party votes · R+17.9 · R+16.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.9%
Kamala Harris (D)41.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
202,108 votes · R+41.7✓ Mario Diaz-Balart (R)70.9%
Christine Alexandria Olivo (D)29.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
342,616 votes · R+3.4✓ Carlos Gimenez (R)51.7%
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)48.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
347,075 two-party votes · R+1.0 · R+5.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Joe Biden (D)49.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
235,475 votes · D+1.7✓ Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)50.9%
Carlos Curbelo (R)49.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
280,542 votes · R+12.5✓ Carlos Curbelo (R)53.0%
Joe Garcia (D)41.2%
Jose Peixoto (I)5.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
289,575 two-party votes · D+21.1 · D+18.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)60.5%
Donald Trump (R)39.5%