Democratic
Rebecca Bennett
Healthcare executive and former United States Navy aviator
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $8.2M
- From individuals
- $7.2M
- Spent
- $6.5M
- Cash on hand
- $1.7M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
New Jersey › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Jersey's 7th District
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (86%).
Bennett is clearly favored to win: Bennett wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Bennett (D)
86%
chance of winning
Kean (R)
14%
- Average margin
- D+6.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- 2in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (84%).
Bennett is clearly favored to win: Bennett wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Bennett (D)
84%
chance of winning
Kean (R)
16%
- Average margin
- D+6.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Thomas Kean Jr.
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4.9M
- From individuals
- $2M
- Spent
- $1.3M
- Cash on hand
- $3.6M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.54 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.19 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.19 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Bennett | Jr. | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StimSight Research for InsiderNJ | Sep 8–Sep 12 | 498 LV | 47 | 42 | D+5 | D+6.1 |
| Z to A Research for 314 Action, which supports Shah | May 24–May 26 | 430 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 | D+4.8 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 12, 2026.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 779,248
- People per km²
- 218
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 55%
- White, no degree
- 31%of adults
- White 69%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 5%
- Asian 8%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
429,090 votes · R+5.7✓ Thomas H. Kean, Jr. (R)51.8%
Sue Altman (D)46.2%
Andrew Black (G)1.0%
Lana Leguia (L)0.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
435,985 two-party votes · R+1.3 · D+0.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.7%
Kamala Harris (D)49.3%
2022
930,279 votes · R+2.8✓ Thomas H Kean, Jr (R)51.4%
Tom Malinowski (D)48.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
434,047 votes · D+1.2✓ Tom Malinowski (D)50.6%
Thomas H Kean Jr (R)49.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
461,292 two-party votes · D+4.1 · R+0.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.0%
Donald Trump (R)48.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
322,334 votes · D+5.0✓ Tom Malinowski (D)51.7%
Leonard Lance (R)46.7%
Diane Moxley (G)0.8%
Gregg Mele (OTH)0.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
342,197 votes · R+11.3✓ Leonard Lance (R)54.3%
Peter Jacob (D)43.3%
Dan O'Neill (L)1.6%
Arthur T Haussmann Jr (C)0.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
373,202 two-party votes · R+5.9 · R+8.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.1%