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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 8th District
Haridopolos is clearly favored to win: Haridopolos wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Jenkins (D)
8%
chance of winning
Haridopolos (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+8.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- 2in our database
Haridopolos is clearly favored to win: Haridopolos wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Jenkins (D)
14%
chance of winning
Haridopolos (R)
86%
- Average margin
- R+7.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- 2in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Jennifer Jenkins
Former Brevard County school board member (previously ran in the 6th district)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $913.7K
- From individuals
- $877.7K
- Spent
- $707.8K
- Cash on hand
- $205.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Mike Haridopolos
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.8M
- From individuals
- $887.5K
- Spent
- $885.2K
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Jul 29, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.89 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Jenkins | Haridopolos | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inquire LLCR-sponsored | Jul 27–Jul 29 | — LV | 42 | 51 | R+9 | R+4.5 |
| Public Policy Polling for Jenkins' campaignD-sponsored | Jul 17–Jul 18 | 633 RV | 35 | 44 | R+9 | R+13.6 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jul 29, 2026.
The district
Lean R+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 804,551
- People per km²
- 167
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 17%
- Black 10%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
450,448 votes · R+24.5✓ Mike Haridopolos (R)62.2%
Sandy Kennedy (D)37.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
425,191 two-party votes · R+16.4 · R+14.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Kamala Harris (D)41.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
342,208 votes · R+29.8✓ Bill Posey (R)64.9%
Joanne Terry (D)35.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
459,788 votes · R+22.7✓ Bill Posey (R)61.4%
Jim Kennedy (D)38.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
446,988 two-party votes · R+11.3 · R+15.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Joe Biden (D)44.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
360,527 votes · R+21.0✓ Bill Posey (R)60.5%
Sanjay Patel (D)39.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
390,561 votes · R+31.9✓ Bill Posey (R)63.1%
Corry Westbrook (D)32.5%
Bill Stinson (I)4.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
459,824 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+12.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.0%