Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
Washington › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Washington's 3rd District
Top twoPerez is favored to win: Perez wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Perez (D)
76%
chance of winning
Braun (R)
24%
- Average margin
- D+4.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- 7in our database
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (41% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Perez (D)
59%
chance of winning
Braun (R)
41%
- Average margin
- D+1.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- 7in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $6.3M
- From individuals
- $2.5M
- Spent
- $4.3M
- Cash on hand
- $2.1M
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
Republican
John Braun
Minority leader of the Washington Senate (2020–present) from the 20th district (2017–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $3.2M
- From individuals
- $2M
- Spent
- $1.9M
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.21 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 9.9 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 9.9 |
Polls
All 7 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Perez | Braun | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research for Oregon Public Broadcasting | Jul 8–Jul 10 | 543 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2 | R+0.7 |
| DHM Research for Oregon Public Broadcasting | Jul 8–Jul 10 | 543 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 | R+0.7 |
| DHM Research for Oregon Public Broadcasting | Jul 8–Jul 10 | 600 RV | 44 | 43 | D+1 | R+0.7 |
| DHM Research for Oregon Public Broadcasting | Jul 8–Jul 10 | 600 RV | 47 | 45 | D+2 | R+0.7 |
| Emerson College for the Northwest Progressive Institute | Jul 8–Jul 10 | 500 LV | 42 | 43 | R+1 | D+1.8 |
| co/efficient for the NRCCR-sponsored | Apr 25–Apr 29 | 982 LV | 34 | 41 | R+7 | R+0.1 |
| Voter Sciences for the Washington State Republican PartyR-sponsored | Aug 1–Aug 31 | — RV | 41 | 48 | R+7 | R+0.4 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jul 10, 2026.
The district
Lean R+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 784,157
- People per km²
- 39
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 56%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 2%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
415,585 votes · D+3.9✓ Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)51.8%
Joe Kent (R)47.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
409,585 two-party votes · R+3.4 · R+1.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.7%
Kamala Harris (D)48.3%
2022
319,498 votes · D+0.9✓ Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)50.2%
Joe Kent (R)49.3%
Write-In (—)0.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
417,903 votes · R+13.0✓ Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)56.4%
Carolyn Long (D)43.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
510,897 two-party votes · R+3.5 · R+8.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.8%
Joe Biden (D)48.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
306,512 votes · R+5.4✓ Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)52.7%
Carolyn Long (D)47.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
312,211 votes · R+23.5✓ Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)61.7%
Jim Moeller (D)38.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
400,678 two-party votes · R+9.1 · R+11.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.5%