Democratic
Elizabeth Kirtley
Freelance writer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $10.5K
- From individuals
- $7K
- Spent
- $5.7K
- Cash on hand
- $4.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Ohio › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio's 6th District
Rulli is very likely to win: Rulli wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Kirtley (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Rulli (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+25.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+35 to R+17
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Rulli is very likely to win: Rulli wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Kirtley (D)
1%
chance of winning
Rulli (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+25.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+14
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Michael Rulli
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.4M
- From individuals
- $270.1K
- Spent
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $461.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.7 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 789,790
- People per km²
- 77
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 20%
- White, no degree
- 71%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 6%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
368,375 votes · R+33.5✓ Michael A. Rulli (R)66.7%
Michael L. Kripchak (D)33.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
362,735 two-party votes · R+34.9 · R+33.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.4%
Kamala Harris (D)32.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
280,383 votes · R+35.4✓ Bill Johnson (R)67.7%
Louis G Lyras (D)32.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
334,791 votes · R+48.8✓ Bill Johnson (R)74.4%
Shawna Roberts (D)25.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
376,948 two-party votes · R+30.3 · R+34.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.2%
Joe Biden (D)34.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
249,490 votes · R+38.5✓ Bill Johnson (R)69.3%
Shawna Roberts (D)30.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
302,755 votes · R+41.4✓ Bill Johnson (R)70.7%
Michael L Lorentz (D)29.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
343,600 two-party votes · R+26.6 · R+28.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.7%