Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia's 4th District
Johnson is very likely to win: Johnson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Johnson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Duffie (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+59.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+50 to D+69
- Partisan lean
- D+54
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Johnson is very likely to win: Johnson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Johnson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Duffie (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+61.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+49 to D+74
- Partisan lean
- D+54
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Hank Johnson
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $494.3K
- From individuals
- $100.6K
- Spent
- $461.4K
- Cash on hand
- $144.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
James Duffie
Retired executive director for Pure Water Worldwide and veteran
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.82 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.65 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.65 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+54: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 757,722
- People per km²
- 1,070
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 9%of adults
- White 20%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 47%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
303,361 votes · D+51.2✓ Henry C. "hank" Johnson, Jr. (D)75.6%
Eugene Yu (R)24.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
306,059 two-party votes · D+53.0 · D+54.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)76.5%
Donald Trump (R)23.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
275,634 votes · D+57.0✓ HENRY C âHANKâ JOHNSON, JR (D)78.5%
Jonathan Chavez (R)21.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
348,299 votes · D+60.2✓ Henry C "hank" Johnson Jr (D)80.1%
Johsie Cruz Ezammudeen (R)19.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
313,768 two-party votes · D+58.4 · D+53.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)79.2%
Donald Trump (R)20.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
288,809 votes · D+57.7✓ Henry C "hank" Johnson Jr (D)78.8%
Joe Profit (R)21.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
290,739 votes · D+51.4✓ Henry C "hank" Johnson Jr (D)75.7%
Victor Armendariz (R)24.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
256,959 two-party votes · D+57.0 · D+54.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)78.5%
Donald Trump (R)21.5%