DemocraticIncumbent
Nikki Budzinski
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.5M
- From individuals
- $2M
- Spent
- $2.4M
- Cash on hand
- $2.9M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Illinois › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois's 13th District
Budzinski is very likely to win: Budzinski wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Budzinski (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Wilson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+23.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+32
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Budzinski is very likely to win: Budzinski wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Budzinski (D)
97%
chance of winning
Wilson (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+18.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jeff Wilson
Champaign County Board member
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $495.1K
- From individuals
- $169.8K
- Spent
- $470.3K
- Cash on hand
- $24.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.92 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.1 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 8.1 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 745,793
- People per km²
- 125
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 19%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
330,119 votes · D+16.2✓ Nikki Budzinski (D)58.0%
Joshua Loyd (R)41.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
326,792 two-party votes · D+10.5 · D+12.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.2%
Donald Trump (R)44.8%
2022
250,779 votes · D+13.2✓ Nikki Budzinski (D)56.5%
Regan Deering (R)43.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
333,021 votes · R+8.9✓ Rodney Davis (R)54.5%
Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D)45.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
349,485 two-party votes · D+11.3 · D+6.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.7%
Donald Trump (R)44.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
271,280 votes · R+0.8✓ Rodney Davis (R)50.3%
Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D)49.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
315,086 votes · R+19.3✓ Rodney Davis (R)59.5%
Mark D Wicklund (D)40.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
322,478 two-party votes · D+8.8 · D+6.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.4%
Donald Trump (R)45.6%