DemocraticIncumbent
Ed Case
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.3M
- From individuals
- $694.4K
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $526.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Hawaii › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hawaii's 1st District
Case is very likely to win: Case wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Case (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Lam (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+38.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+28 to D+49
- Partisan lean
- D+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Case is very likely to win: Case wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Case (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Lam (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+34.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+22 to D+47
- Partisan lean
- D+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Adriel Lam
Candidate for U.S. Senate in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 19.89 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 19.89 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+26: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 712,094
- People per km²
- 790
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 7%of adults
- White 15%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 2%
- Asian 49%
- Other / multiracial 26%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
228,610 votes · D+43.7✓ Ed Case (D)71.8%
Patrick C. Largey (R)28.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
244,496 two-party votes · D+25.2 · D+26.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)62.6%
Donald Trump (R)37.4%
2022
194,763 votes · D+47.4✓ Ed Case (D)73.7%
Conrad Kress (R)26.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
254,433 votes · D+44.0✓ Ed Case (D)72.0%
Ron Curtis (R)28.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
274,855 two-party votes · D+29.9 · D+25.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)65.0%
Donald Trump (R)35.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
184,211 votes · D+52.0✓ Ed Case (D)73.1%
Cam Cavasso (R)23.1%
Michelle Rose Tippens (L)1.9%
Zachary B Burd (G)1.2%
Calvin C Griffin (NPA)0.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
400,361 votes · D+50.6✓ Colleen Wakako Hanabusa (D)68.6%
Shirlene D "shirl" Ostrov (R)22.5%
Alan J K Yim (L)2.9%
Calvin "g" Griffin (I)1.8%
KAAIHUE, Angela Aulani (D)1.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
195,075 two-party votes · D+34.9 · D+32.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)67.4%
Donald Trump (R)32.6%