Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 13th District
FusionChevalier is very likely to win: Chevalier wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Chevalier (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Williams (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+70.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+61 to D+81
- Partisan lean
- D+65
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Chevalier is very likely to win: Chevalier wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Chevalier (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Williams (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+72.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+60 to D+85
- Partisan lean
- D+65
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Darializa Avila Chevalier
Graduate student and community organizer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.6M
- From individuals
- $1.4M
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $146.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Jomo Williams
Businessman and nominee for New York City's 7th City Council district in 2025
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.53 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.03 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+65: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 767,404
- People per km²
- 20,341
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 4%of adults
- White 15%
- Hispanic 52%
- Black 24%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
218,973 votes · D+67.1✓ Adriano Espaillat (D)83.0%
Ruben D. Vargas (R)16.4%
Scatter (—)0.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
235,601 two-party votes · D+60.3 · D+61.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)80.1%
Donald Trump (R)19.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
116,589 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Adriano Espaillat (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
254,965 votes · D+84.2✓ Adriano Espaillat (D)90.9%
Lovelynn Gwinn (R)7.8%
Christopher Morris-Perry (C)1.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
272,745 two-party votes · D+77.7 · D+73.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)88.8%
Donald Trump (R)11.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
190,303 votes · D+89.2✓ Adriano Espaillat (D)94.6%
Jineea Butler (R)5.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
233,737 votes · D+85.6✓ Adriano Espaillat (D)88.6%
Robert A Evans Jr (R)6.9%
Daniel Vila Rivera (G)3.5%
Scott Lloyd Fenstermaker (OTH)0.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
257,887 two-party votes · D+89.2 · D+86.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)94.6%
Donald Trump (R)5.4%