Senate forecast 2026 · 99chambers

Democrats are favored to control the Senate (74%), which would flip it from Republican control.

Democrats

74%

chance of control

Republicans

26%

Avg. D seats: 52.180% range 49–55
Avg. R seats: 47.980% range 45–51
Now: 47 D · 53 R35 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a three-fifths supermajority (60+ seats): under 1% each.

Democrats are favored to control the Senate (71%), which would flip it from Republican control.

Democrats

71%

chance of control

Republicans

29%

Avg. D seats: 52.180% range 48–56
Avg. R seats: 47.980% range 44–52
Now: 47 D · 53 R35 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a three-fifths supermajority (60+ seats): under 1% each.

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 35 Senate races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D11

Likely D2

Lean D4

Toss-up3

Lean R2

Likely R3

Solid R10

Solid D9

Likely D4

Lean D4

Toss-up3

Lean R2

Likely R5

Solid R8

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Purple: an independent is favored.

The map

Each state colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

IowaJosh TurekAshley HinsonFlip riskFlip risk53%Rep.50%Rep. AlaskaMary PeltolaDan S. SullivanFlip riskFlip risk54%Dem.56%Dem. KansasAdam HamiltonRoger MarshallFlip riskFlip risk54%Rep.54%Rep. NebraskaDan OsbornPete Ricketts65%Rep.66%Rep. MaineTroy JacksonSusan CollinsD flipD flip68%Dem.76%Dem. TexasJames TalaricoKen PaxtonD flipD flip70%Dem.61%Dem. South CarolinaAnnie AndrewsDarline Graham74%Rep.71%Rep. Ohio (special)Sherrod BrownJon HustedD flipD flip75%Dem.69%Dem. MichiganAbdul El-SayedMike Rogers76%Dem.76%Dem.

Most likely to flip

North CarolinaRoy CooperMichael WhatleyD flipD flip97%to flip95%to flip Ohio (special)Sherrod BrownJon HustedD flipD flip75%to flip69%to flip TexasJames TalaricoKen PaxtonD flipD flip70%to flip61%to flip MaineTroy JacksonSusan CollinsD flipD flip68%to flip76%to flip AlaskaMary PeltolaDan S. SullivanFlip riskFlip risk54%to flip56%to flip IowaJosh TurekAshley HinsonFlip riskFlip risk47%to flip50%to flip KansasAdam HamiltonRoger MarshallFlip riskFlip risk46%to flip46%to flip NebraskaDan OsbornPete Ricketts35%to flip34%to flip South CarolinaAnnie AndrewsDarline Graham26%to flip29%to flip MichiganAbdul El-SayedMike Rogers24%to flip24%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

35 races.

RCV AK, ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Top four AK Top-four primary: every candidate ran on one primary ballot, and the four with the most votes advanced.
Runoff GA Runoff: if no candidate reaches the required share of the vote, the top two meet again in a second round.
Fusion OR Fusion voting: a candidate can appear on several party lines, and the votes add up.

35 races

State	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
Alabama	● Everett Wess● Barry Moore	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+19.1R+19.1	Solid RSolid R	R+30	2
AlaskaFlip riskFlip risk	● Mary Peltola● Dan S. SullivanINCAlso: Gerald Heikes (R)	54%46% 56%44%	D+0.5D+0.9	Toss-upToss-up	R+13	34
Arkansas	● Hallie Shoffner● Tom CottonINC	5%95% 6%94%	R+13.1R+13.1	Solid RLikely R	R+31	5
Colorado	● John HickenlooperINC● Mark Baisley	99%1% 98%2%	D+22.9D+20.3	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
Delaware	● Chris CoonsINC● Michael Katz	99%1% 99%1%	D+26.2D+26.0	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
Florida (special)Special	● Angie Nixon● Ashley MoodyINC	18%82% 20%80%	R+5.3R+5.4	Likely RLikely R	R+11	17
GeorgiaRunoff 1%	● Jon OssoffINC● Mike Collins	96%4% 93%7%	D+10.2D+9.2	Solid DLikely D	R+2	21
Idaho	● Todd Achilles● Jim RischINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+19.1R+21.2	Solid RSolid R	R+36	9
Illinois	● Juliana Stratton● Don Tracy	98%2% 97%3%	D+17.1D+16.8	Solid DSolid D	D+13	1
IowaFlip riskFlip risk	● Josh Turek● Ashley Hinson	47%53% 50%50%	R+0.3Even	Toss-upToss-up	R+12	37
KansasFlip riskFlip risk	● Adam Hamilton● Roger MarshallINCAlso: David Graham (L)	46%54% 46%54%	R+0.6R+0.6	Toss-upToss-up	R+16	18
Kentucky	● Charles Booker● Andy Barr	1%99% 2%98%	R+17.1R+17.2	Solid RSolid R	R+30	2
Louisiana	● Jamie Davis● Julia Letlow	5%95% 6%94%	R+11.0R+10.9	Solid RLikely R	R+22	2
MaineD flipD flip	● Troy Jackson● Susan CollinsINC	68%32% 76%24%	D+2.4D+4.5	Lean DLean D	D+8	29
Massachusetts	● Ed MarkeyINC● John DeatonAlso: Joe Tache (PSL)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+32.5D+33.7	Solid DSolid D	D+28	11
Michigan	● Abdul El-Sayed● Mike Rogers	76%24% 76%24%	D+3.5D+4.0	Lean DLean D	Even	61
Minnesota	● Peggy Flanagan● Michele Tafoya	87%13% 85%16%	D+7.2D+6.9	Likely DLikely D	D+5	19
Mississippi	● Scott Colom● Cindy Hyde-SmithINCAlso: Ty Pinkins (I)	14%86% 15%85%	R+7.2R+7.6	Likely RLikely R	R+22	5
Montana	● Seth Bodnar● Kurt AlmeAlso: Kyle Austin (L), Alani Bankhead (D)	2%98% 2%98%	R+13.5R+14.1	Solid RSolid R	R+20	21
Nebraska	● Dan Osborn● Pete RickettsINC	35%65% 34%66%	R+2.4R+2.8	Lean RLean R	R+21	15
New Hampshire	● Chris Pappas● John E. Sununu	94%6% 91%9%	D+8.9D+7.9	Likely DLikely D	D+4	26
New Jersey	● Cory BookerINC● Justin Murphy	98%2% 97%3%	D+23.5D+18.9	Solid DSolid D	D+9	—
New Mexico	● Ben Ray LujánINC● Larry Marker	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+18.9D+17.8	Solid DSolid D	D+7	3
North CarolinaD flipD flip	● Roy Cooper● Michael Whatley	97%3% 95%5%	D+10.8D+10.2	Solid DLikely D	R+3	59
Ohio (special)SpecialD flipD flip	● Sherrod Brown● Jon HustedINC	75%25% 69%31%	D+3.5D+3.0	Lean DLean D	R+11	37
Oklahoma	● N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas● Kevin Hern	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+27.2R+27.7	Solid RSolid R	R+35	1
Oregon	● Jeff MerkleyINC● David Brock Smith	98%2% 97%3%	D+22.0D+18.9	Solid DSolid D	D+15	—
Rhode Island	● Jack ReedINC● Raymond McKayAlso: Michael Bahry (I)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+31.8D+31.2	Solid DSolid D	D+16	5
South Carolina	● Annie Andrews● Darline GrahamINC	26%74% 29%71%	R+3.7R+3.5	Lean RLean R	R+17	9
South Dakota	● Brian Bengs● Mike RoundsINC	7%93% 7%93%	R+11.7R+12.0	Likely RLikely R	R+29	10
Tennessee	● Marquita Bradshaw● Bill HagertyINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+21.8R+19.8	Solid RSolid R	R+29	1
TexasD flipD flip	● James Talarico● Ken Paxton	70%30% 61%39%	D+2.9D+1.8	Lean DLean D	R+12	61
Virginia	● Mark WarnerINC● Bert Mizusawa	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+22.5D+19.7	Solid DSolid D	D+7	2
West Virginia	● Rachel Fetty Anderson● Shelley Moore CapitoINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.9R+31.7	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
Wyoming	● James W. Byrd● Harriet Hageman	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.4R+39.6	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. Purple marks an independent the model treats as the main challenger. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.