Democratic
Josh Smead
Architect
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $71.9K
- From individuals
- $63.6K
- Spent
- $55.2K
- Cash on hand
- $16.7K
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
Missouri › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri's 6th District
Stigall is very likely to win: Stigall wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Smead (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Stigall (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+28.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+20
- Partisan lean
- R+39
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Stigall is very likely to win: Stigall wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Smead (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Stigall (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+31.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+43 to R+20
- Partisan lean
- R+39
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Chris Stigall
Radio show host
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $969K
- From individuals
- $702.2K
- Spent
- $756.7K
- Cash on hand
- $212.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.09 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.3 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+39: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 779,588
- People per km²
- 15
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 65%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
375,186 votes · R+44.8✓ Sam Graves (R)70.7%
Pam May (D)26.9%
Andy Maidment (L)1.6%
Mike Diel (G)0.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
378,587 two-party votes · R+39.3 · R+37.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.7%
Kamala Harris (D)30.3%
2022
262,892 votes · R+43.8✓ Sam Graves (R)70.3%
Henry Martin (D)27.5%
EDWARD A âANDYâ MAIDMENT (L)2.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
385,779 votes · R+37.0✓ Sam Graves (R)67.1%
Gena L Ross (D)30.8%
Jim Higgins (L)2.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
377,657 two-party votes · R+37.9 · R+42.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.9%
Joe Biden (D)31.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
305,409 votes · R+34.3✓ Sam Graves (R)65.4%
Henry Robert Martin (D)32.0%
Dan Hogan (L)2.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
350,444 votes · R+41.0✓ Sam Graves (R)68.0%
David M Blackwell (D)28.4%
Russ Lee Monchil (L)2.3%
Mike Diel (G)1.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
333,322 two-party votes · R+40.5 · R+42.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)29.7%