Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia's 12th District
Allen is clearly favored to win: Allen wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Smith wins Nov 3
5%
Runoff Dec 1
9%
Allen wins Nov 3
86%
Including the runoff: Smith 9% · Allen 91% to win the seat. In a runoff, Allen wins 53% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+9.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Allen is favored to win: Allen wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Smith wins Nov 3
18%
Runoff Dec 1
14%
Allen wins Nov 3
68%
Including the runoff: Smith 25% · Allen 75% to win the seat. In a runoff, Allen wins 52% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+6.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Ceretta Smith
Grovetown city councilor
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $44.7K
- From individuals
- $38K
- Spent
- $34.2K
- Cash on hand
- $10.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Rick Allen
Incumbent U.S. Representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.2M
- From individuals
- $583.5K
- Spent
- $937.9K
- Cash on hand
- $1.4M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.17 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.87 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.87 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 771,472
- People per km²
- 30
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 51%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 36%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
341,266 votes · R+20.6✓ Rick W. Allen (R)60.3%
Elizabeth "liz" Johnson (D)39.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
346,076 two-party votes · R+14.2 · R+12.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.1%
Kamala Harris (D)42.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
265,195 votes · R+19.2✓ Rick W Allen (R)59.6%
ELIZABETH âLIZâ JOHNSON (D)40.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
310,099 votes · R+16.8✓ Rick W Allen (R)58.4%
Liz Johnson (D)41.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
339,626 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+14.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.0%
Joe Biden (D)45.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
250,489 votes · R+19.0✓ Rick W Allen (R)59.5%
Francys Johnson (D)40.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
258,912 votes · R+23.2✓ Rick W Allen (R)61.6%
Patricia C McCracken (D)38.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
281,049 two-party votes · R+13.5 · R+15.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.2%