99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Texas's 8th District

Steinmann is very likely to win: Steinmann wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Jones (D)
1%
chance of winning
Steinmann (R)
99%
Average margin
R+18.5
80% of outcomes
R+28 to R+10
Partisan lean
R+25
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Steinmann is very likely to win: Steinmann wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Jones (D)
3%
chance of winning
Steinmann (R)
97%
Average margin
R+17.9
80% of outcomes
R+30 to R+6
Partisan lean
R+25
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

R+18.5R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
R+17.9R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Jones 1%Steinmann 99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Jones 3%Steinmann 97%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Laura Jones

Former chair of the San Jacinto County Democratic Party and nominee for this district in 2022 and 2024

Experience
No elected office
Raised
$29.9K
From individuals
$27K
Spent
$26.8K
Cash on hand
$5.6K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Swing reaching this office
78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
Southwest adjustment
−1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 78% of the environment andthe Southwest adjustmentR+17.4Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+18.5Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Texas and look-alikeplacesR+18.3Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+18.5Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+17.9

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-2.74
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation0
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.

The district

Lean R+25: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+20.8R+23.1 vs. nation2020 presidentR+17.6R+22.1 vs. nation2024 presidentR+27.9R+26.4 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
827,257
People per km²
192
Adults with a B.A.+
33%
White, no degree
27%of adults
  • White 40%
  • Hispanic 34%
  • Black 16%
  • Asian 6%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024 Earlier district lines

342,177 votes · R+36.4
✓ Morgan Luttrell (R)68.2%
Laura Jones (D)31.8%

2024 President Vote in this district

306,849 two-party votes · R+27.9 · R+26.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)64.0%
Kamala Harris (D)36.0%

2022 Earlier district lines

224,968 votes · R+38.1
✓ Morgan Luttrell (R)68.1%
Laura Jones (D)30.5%
Roy Eriksen (L)1.4%

2020 Earlier district lines

382,470 votes · R+48.0
✓ Kevin Brady (R)72.5%
Elizabeth Hernandez (D)25.5%
Chris Duncan (L)2.0%

2020 President Vote in this district

293,734 two-party votes · R+17.6 · R+22.1 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)58.8%
Joe Biden (D)41.2%

2018 Earlier district lines

273,157 votes · R+49.4
✓ Kevin Brady (R)73.4%
Steven David (D)24.9%
Chris Duncan (L)1.7%

2016 Earlier district lines

236,379 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Kevin Brady (R)100.0%

2016 President Vote in this district

211,236 two-party votes · R+20.8 · R+23.1 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)60.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.6%

Also on the ballot in Texas

U.S. SenateJames TalaricoKen PaxtonD flipD flip70%Dem.61%Dem. GovernorGina HinojosaGreg Abbott68%Rep.64%Rep.

Neighboring districts

TX-2Shaun FinnieSteve Toth98%Rep.97%Rep. TX-7Lizzie FletcherAlexander Hale>99%Dem.>99%Dem. TX-10Caitlin RourkChris Gober98%Rep.96%Rep. TX-22Marquette Greene-ScottTrever Nehls97%Rep.93%Rep. TX-27Tanya LloydMichael Cloud97%Rep.93%Rep. TX-38Melissa McDonoughJon Bonck95%Rep.90%Rep.