Oklahoma › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Bice is very likely to win: Bice wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Bice is very likely to win: Bice wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
Oklahoma Teacher of the Year (2020) and nominee for Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2022
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Incumbent U.S. representative
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.1 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.81 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.81 |
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Nelson | Bice | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO for Nelson's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 17–Sep 20 | 500 LV | 43 | 48 | R+5 | R+11.4 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 20, 2026.
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.