Democratic
Steven Shook
Nurse practitioner
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $32.1K
- Spent
- $29.2K
- Cash on hand
- $2.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 26th District
Gill is very likely to win: Gill wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Shook (D)
1%
chance of winning
Gill (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+17.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Gill is clearly favored to win: Gill wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Shook (D)
5%
chance of winning
Gill (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+15.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Brandon Gill
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4.2M
- From individuals
- $3.4M
- Spent
- $2.9M
- Cash on hand
- $1.4M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -3.68 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 833,747
- People per km²
- 149
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 30%of adults
- White 54%
- Hispanic 21%
- Black 10%
- Asian 10%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
388,427 votes · R+27.0✓ Brandon Gill (R)62.1%
Ernest R. Lineberger III (D)35.7%
Phil Gray (L)2.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
382,947 two-party votes · R+24.1 · R+22.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.1%
Kamala Harris (D)37.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
265,021 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Michael C Burgess (R)69.3%
Mike Kolls (L)30.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
432,215 votes · R+23.9✓ Michael C Burgess (R)60.6%
Carol H Iannuzzi (D)37.3%
Mark Boler (L)2.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
370,605 two-party votes · R+18.0 · R+22.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.0%
Joe Biden (D)41.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
312,505 votes · R+20.7✓ Michael C Burgess (R)59.4%
Linsey Fagan (D)39.0%
Mark Boler (L)1.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
319,080 votes · R+38.3✓ Michael C Burgess (R)66.4%
Eric Mauck (D)29.6%
Mark Boler (L)4.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
268,068 two-party votes · R+31.0 · R+33.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.5%