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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 6th District
Fine is very likely to win: Fine wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Yonce (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Fine (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+22.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+31 to R+14
- Partisan lean
- R+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fine is very likely to win: Fine wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Yonce (D)
1%
chance of winning
Fine (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+21.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Eric Yonce
Realtor
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $525.9K
- From individuals
- $523.2K
- Spent
- $421.9K
- Cash on hand
- $104.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Randy Fine
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4.6M
- From individuals
- $2.7M
- Spent
- $4.5M
- Cash on hand
- $160.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.86 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+29: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 827,041
- People per km²
- 81
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 55%of adults
- White 70%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 11%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2025 specialEarlier district lines
195,788 votes · R+14.1✓ Randy Fine (R)56.7%
Josh Weil (D)42.7%
2024 Earlier district lines
428,012 votes · R+33.1✓ Michael Waltz (R)66.5%
James David Stockton III (D)33.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
444,110 two-party votes · R+30.3 · R+28.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.1%
Kamala Harris (D)34.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
300,755 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Michael Waltz (R)75.3%
JOSEPH âJOEâ HANNOUSH (L)24.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
438,232 votes · R+21.3✓ Michael Waltz (R)60.6%
Clint Curtis (D)39.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
436,203 two-party votes · R+23.4 · R+27.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.7%
Joe Biden (D)38.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
333,649 votes · R+12.6✓ Michael Waltz (R)56.3%
Nancy Soderberg (D)43.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
395,593 two-party votes · R+25.1 · R+27.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.5%