Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia's 10th District
Gaines is very likely to win: Gaines wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Delancy wins Nov 3
1%
Runoff Dec 1
1%
Gaines wins Nov 3
98%
Including the runoff: Delancy 1% · Gaines 99% to win the seat. In a runoff, Gaines wins 58% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+17.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Gaines is clearly favored to win: Gaines wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Delancy wins Nov 3
5%
Runoff Dec 1
5%
Gaines wins Nov 3
90%
Including the runoff: Delancy 7% · Gaines 93% to win the seat. In a runoff, Gaines wins 54% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+13.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Pam Delancy
Nurse
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $77.1K
- From individuals
- $69.2K
- Spent
- $41.6K
- Cash on hand
- $58.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Houston Gaines
State representative from the 120th district (2019–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $2.7M
- From individuals
- $2.3M
- Spent
- $1.7M
- Cash on hand
- $1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -3.56 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.25 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 791,367
- People per km²
- 57
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 25%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
406,716 votes · R+26.1✓ Mike Collins (R)63.1%
Alexandra "lexy" Doherty (D)36.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
412,737 two-party votes · R+20.9 · R+19.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.4%
Kamala Harris (D)39.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
307,630 votes · R+29.1✓ Mike Collins (R)64.5%
Tabitha Johnson-Green (D)35.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
378,446 votes · R+24.6✓ Jody B Hice (R)62.3%
Tabitha Johnson-Green (D)37.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
397,126 two-party votes · R+18.5 · R+23.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.2%
Joe Biden (D)40.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
302,735 votes · R+25.8✓ Jody Hice (R)62.9%
Tabitha A Johnson-Green (D)37.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
244,611 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jody B Hice (R)99.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
303,601 two-party votes · R+28.4 · R+30.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.8%