Democratic
Kristina Knickerbocker
U.S. Air Force veteran
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $883.2K
- From individuals
- $772.2K
- Spent
- $580K
- Cash on hand
- $303.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Ohio › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio's 10th District
Turner is favored to win: Turner wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Knickerbocker (D)
23%
chance of winning
Turner (R)
77%
- Average margin
- R+5.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- 3in our database
Turner is favored to win: Turner wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Knickerbocker (D)
27%
chance of winning
Turner (R)
73%
- Average margin
- R+5.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mike Turner
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.2M
- From individuals
- $560K
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $588.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Libertarian
Thomas McMasters
Former mayor of Huber Heights and independent candidate for this district in 2016
- Experience
- Local office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.7 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Knickerbocker | Turner | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group for Knickerbocker's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 20–Jul 23 | 700 LV | 42 | 49 | R+7 | R+12.5 |
| Global Strategy Group for Knickerbocker's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 20–Jul 23 | 700 LV | 40 | 45 | R+5 | R+12.5 |
| FM3 Research for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Jul 6–Jul 12 | 535 LV | 41 | 48 | R+7 | R+12.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jul 23, 2026.
The district
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 793,248
- People per km²
- 320
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 72%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 16%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
370,746 votes · R+19.0✓ Michael R. Turner (R)57.6%
Amy Cox (D)39.2%
Michael Harbaugh (I)3.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
374,685 two-party votes · R+7.8 · R+6.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.9%
Kamala Harris (D)46.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
272,961 votes · R+23.3✓ Michael R Turner (R)61.7%
David Esrati (D)38.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
364,948 votes · R+16.7✓ Michael R Turner (R)58.4%
Desiree Tims (D)41.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
384,896 two-party votes · R+5.9 · R+10.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.9%
Joe Biden (D)47.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
281,726 votes · R+14.0✓ Mike Turner (R)55.9%
Theresa A Gasper (D)42.2%
David A Harlow (L)1.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
336,602 votes · R+32.5✓ Michael R Turner (R)64.1%
Robert Klepinger (D)32.7%
Tom McMasters (I)3.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
353,675 two-party votes · R+8.9 · R+11.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.5%