Democratic
Tom Perriello
Former special envoy for Sudan (2024–2025), former U.S. representative (2009–2011)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.1M
- From individuals
- $2M
- Spent
- $629.1K
- Cash on hand
- $1.5M
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
Virginia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Virginia's 5th District
McGuire is clearly favored to win: McGuire wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Perriello (D)
16%
chance of winning
McGuire (R)
84%
- Average margin
- R+5.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 3in our database
McGuire is clearly favored to win: McGuire wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Perriello (D)
19%
chance of winning
McGuire (R)
81%
- Average margin
- R+5.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
John McGuire
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.2M
- From individuals
- $1.4M
- Spent
- $1.8M
- Cash on hand
- $479K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.45 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.01 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.01 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Perriello | McGuire | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/SSPG | Sep 23–Sep 28 | 600 LV | 45 | 51 | R+6 | R+7.4 |
| Expedition Strategies for Perriello's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 21–Sep 24 | 400 LV | 45 | 46 | R+1 | R+5.4 |
| Expedition Strategies for Perriello's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 29–Aug 1 | 602 LV | 44 | 47 | R+3 | R+6.6 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 28, 2026.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 794,774
- People per km²
- 32
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 69%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 20%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
435,839 votes · R+15.1✓ John J. McGuire III (R)57.3%
Gloria Tinsley Witt (D)42.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
437,628 two-party votes · R+12.4 · R+10.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.2%
Kamala Harris (D)43.8%
2022
307,775 votes · R+15.4✓ Bob Good (R)57.6%
Joshua M Throneburg (D)42.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
402,355 votes · R+5.2✓ Robert G "bob" Good (R)52.4%
B Cameron Webb (D)47.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
434,056 two-party votes · R+8.7 · R+13.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Joe Biden (D)45.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
310,929 votes · R+6.5✓ Denver L Riggleman III (R)53.2%
Leslie C Cockburn (D)46.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
356,765 votes · R+16.7✓ Tom A Garrett Jr (R)58.2%
Jane D Dittmar (D)41.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
371,783 two-party votes · R+11.9 · R+14.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.0%