Democratic
Jake Johnson
High school teacher
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $3.2M
- From individuals
- $2.8M
- Spent
- $2.2M
- Cash on hand
- $1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Minnesota › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota's 1st District
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (42% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Johnson (D)
42%
chance of winning
Finstad (R)
58%
- Average margin
- R+1.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 4in our database
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (41% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Johnson (D)
41%
chance of winning
Finstad (R)
59%
- Average margin
- R+1.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 4in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Brad Finstad
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.6M
- From individuals
- $1M
- Spent
- $1.6M
- Cash on hand
- $1.1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.06 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.96 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.96 |
Polls
All 4 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Johnson | Finstad | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA for KAAL | Oct 4–Oct 9 | 565 LV | 46 | 44 | D+2 | D+0.4 |
| GBAO for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Sep 18–Sep 21 | 500 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1 | R+4.9 |
| Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives For America, an organization linked to the Republican Study CommitteeR-sponsored | Mar 12–Mar 14 | 400 LV | 42 | 52 | R+10 | R+0.5 |
| Public Policy Polling for Johnson's campaignD-sponsored | Feb 2–Feb 3 | 708 RV | 41 | 44 | R+3 | R+5.4 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 9, 2026.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 714,549
- People per km²
- 22
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 58%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 4%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
377,601 votes · R+17.1✓ Brad Finstad (R)58.5%
Rachel Bohman (D)41.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
380,983 two-party votes · R+12.2 · R+10.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.1%
Kamala Harris (D)43.9%
2022
296,547 votes · R+12.0✓ Brad Finstad (R)53.8%
Jeff Ettinger (D)42.3%
Richard B Reisdorf (LMN)2.2%
Brian Abrahamson (GLC)1.7%
2022 specialEarlier district lines
117,357 votes · R+4.0✓ Finstad, Brad (R)50.9%
Ettinger, Jeff (D)47.0%
Reisdorf, Richard B. (LMN)1.3%
McClellan, Haroun (GLC)0.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
368,856 votes · R+3.3✓ Jim Hagedorn (R)48.6%
Dan Feehan (D)45.5%
Bill Rood (GLC)5.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
384,843 two-party votes · R+9.6 · R+14.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.8%
Joe Biden (D)45.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
291,661 votes · R+0.5✓ Jim Hagedorn (R)50.1%
Dan Feehan (D)49.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
328,221 two-party votes · R+15.4 · R+17.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.3%