All-party U.S. House election
For 2026, all U.S. House candidates of every party share one ballot on November 3. A candidate who wins more than half the vote is elected; otherwise the top two meet on December 12, 2026.
Louisiana › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Louisiana's 2nd District
All-partyCarter is very likely to win: Carter wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Carter (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Williams (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+54.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+46 to D+65
- Partisan lean
- D+50
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Carter is very likely to win: Carter wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Carter (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Williams (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+56.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+44 to D+70
- Partisan lean
- D+50
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbentCandidate
Troy Carter
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.9M
- From individuals
- $557.1K
- Spent
- $1.8M
- Cash on hand
- $666.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
DemocraticCandidate
Renada Collins
Businesswoman and independent candidate for mayor of New Orleans in 2025
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
RepublicanCandidate
Peter Williams
Tree farmer
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.67 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+50: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 743,977
- People per km²
- 245
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 18%of adults
- White 27%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 56%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
305,184 votes · D+63.1✓ Troy A. Carter (D)60.3%
Christy Lynch (R)13.6%
Devin Lance Graham (R)12.8%
Devin Davis (D)10.6%
Shondrell Perrilloux (R)2.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
299,811 two-party votes · D+48.4 · D+49.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)74.2%
Donald Trump (R)25.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
205,047 votes · D+54.2✓ Troy A Carter (D)77.1%
âDANâ LUX (R)22.9%
2021 runoffEarlier district lines
87,810 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Carter, Troy A. (D)55.2%
Peterson, Karen Carter (D)44.8%
2021 specialEarlier district lines
94,567 votes · D+57.7✓ Carter, Troy A. (D)36.4%
Peterson, Karen Carter (D)22.9%
Chambers, Gary, Jr. (D)21.3%
Bernard, Claston (R)9.8%
Ardoin, Chelsea (R)3.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
316,982 votes · D+61.8✓ Cedric L Richmond (D)63.6%
David M Schilling (R)15.0%
Glenn Adrain Harris (D)10.6%
Sheldon C Vincent Sr (R)4.9%
Belden "noonie Man" Batiste (I)3.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
370,136 two-party votes · D+54.1 · D+49.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)77.0%
Donald Trump (R)23.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
319,845 two-party votes · D+52.3 · D+50.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)76.1%
Donald Trump (R)23.9%