Democratic
Jennifer Mazzuckelli
Homemaker and candidate for Clermont County commissioner in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
Ohio › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio's 2nd District
Taylor is very likely to win: Taylor wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mazzuckelli (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Taylor (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+33.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+42 to R+25
- Partisan lean
- R+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Taylor is very likely to win: Taylor wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mazzuckelli (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Taylor (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+34.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+47 to R+23
- Partisan lean
- R+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
David Taylor
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.1M
- From individuals
- $624.8K
- Spent
- $780.1K
- Cash on hand
- $443K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.97 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+42: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 784,366
- People per km²
- 39
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 22%
- White, no degree
- 73%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
364,612 votes · R+47.1✓ David J. Taylor (R)73.6%
Samantha Meadows (D)26.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
373,137 two-party votes · R+42.5 · R+41.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.2%
Kamala Harris (D)28.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
257,862 votes · R+49.0✓ Brad R Wenstrup (R)74.5%
Samantha Meadows (D)25.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
377,248 votes · R+22.2✓ Brad R Wenstrup (R)61.1%
Jaime M Castle (D)38.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
373,135 two-party votes · R+40.2 · R+44.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.1%
Joe Biden (D)29.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
289,653 votes · R+16.6✓ Brad Wenstrup (R)57.6%
Jill Schiller (D)41.2%
James J Condit Jr (G)1.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
340,279 votes · R+32.9✓ Brad R Wenstrup (R)65.0%
William R Smith (D)32.8%
Janet Everhard (—)2.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
339,013 two-party votes · R+38.7 · R+41.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.6%