Democratic
Victoria Broderick
Telemarketer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $83.9K
- From individuals
- $75.4K
- Spent
- $83K
- Cash on hand
- $8.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Tennessee › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee's 4th District
DesJarlais is very likely to win: DesJarlais wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Broderick (D)
3%
chance of winning
DesJarlais (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+13.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
DesJarlais is clearly favored to win: DesJarlais wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Broderick (D)
5%
chance of winning
DesJarlais (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+15.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Scott DesJarlais
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $536.8K
- From individuals
- $228.8K
- Spent
- $407.7K
- Cash on hand
- $495.1K
Money: FEC, through Jul 17, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.48 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 787,648
- People per km²
- 72
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 15%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
313,255 votes · R+44.7✓ Scott Desjarlais (R)70.0%
Victoria Isabel Broderick (D)26.8%
Keith Nolan (I)1.8%
Earnest Ensley (I)1.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
301,475 two-party votes · R+24.3 · R+22.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.1%
Kamala Harris (D)37.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
173,437 votes · R+46.5✓ Scott Desjarlais (R)70.6%
Wayne Steele (D)25.7%
Mike Winton (I)1.6%
Clyde Benson (I)1.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
335,710 votes · R+33.3✓ Scott Desjarlais (R)66.7%
Christopher J Hale (D)33.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
301,514 two-party votes · R+15.9 · R+20.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.9%
Joe Biden (D)42.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
232,451 votes · R+30.7✓ Scott Desjarlais (R)63.4%
Mariah Phillips (D)33.6%
Michael Shupe (I)3.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
254,937 votes · R+30.1✓ Scott Desjarlais (R)65.0%
Steven Reynolds (D)35.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
230,563 two-party votes · R+21.1 · R+23.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.4%