Democratic
Peter Crosby
Project manager
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $138.4K
- From individuals
- $138.2K
- Spent
- $84.4K
- Cash on hand
- $48.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Utah › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Utah's 2nd District
Moore is very likely to win: Moore wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Crosby (D)
5%
chance of winning
Moore (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+15.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- 3in our database
Moore is clearly favored to win: Moore wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Crosby (D)
11%
chance of winning
Moore (R)
89%
- Average margin
- R+12.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Blake Moore
Incumbent U.S. representative from the 1st district
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.7M
- From individuals
- $1.1M
- Spent
- $2.7M
- Cash on hand
- $1.6M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.5 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Crosby | Moore | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthouse Research for the Utah Debate Commission | Sep 10–Sep 24 | 515 LV | 34 | 39 | R+5 | R+5.6 |
| Crosby for CongressD-sponsored | Sep 21–Sep 23 | 657 LV | 35 | 32 | D+3 | D+1.1 |
| Crosby for CongressD-sponsored | Sep 8–Sep 10 | 762 RV | 31 | 32 | R+1 | R+4.7 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 24, 2026.
The district
Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 844,495
- People per km²
- 32
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
353,762 votes · R+25.8✓ Celeste Maloy (R)58.0%
Nathaniel E. Woodward (D)34.2%
Cassie Easley (CST)5.6%
Tyler Murset (I)2.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
357,207 two-party votes · R+29.9 · R+28.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.0%
Kamala Harris (D)35.0%
2023 specialEarlier district lines
157,436 votes · R+25.8✓ Maloy, Celeste (R)57.1%
Riebe, Kathleen (D)33.6%
Green, Bradley Garth (L)2.9%
Easley, Cassie (CST)2.3%
Walker, January (UUP)1.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
259,399 votes · R+27.4✓ Chris Stewart (R)59.7%
Nick Mitchell (D)34.0%
Jaymac McFarland (UUP)3.3%
Cassie Easley (CST)3.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
354,224 votes · R+23.4✓ Chris Stewart (R)59.0%
Kael Weston (D)36.6%
J Robert Latham (L)4.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
354,975 two-party votes · R+31.8 · R+36.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.9%
Joe Biden (D)34.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
270,047 votes · R+18.1✓ Chris Stewart (R)56.1%
Shireen Ghorbani (D)38.9%
Jeffrey Whipple (L)5.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
200,459 two-party votes · R+36.9 · R+39.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.5%