Democratic
Chuck Hubbard
Retired newspaper reporter and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $793.5K
- From individuals
- $788.5K
- Spent
- $660.8K
- Cash on hand
- $140.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
North Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina's 5th District
Foxx is clearly favored to win: Foxx wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Hubbard (D)
5%
chance of winning
Foxx (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+11.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Foxx is clearly favored to win: Foxx wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Hubbard (D)
12%
chance of winning
Foxx (R)
88%
- Average margin
- R+10.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Virginia Foxx
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.1M
- From individuals
- $1.4M
- Spent
- $1.5M
- Cash on hand
- $3.5M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 744,856
- People per km²
- 68
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 69%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 17%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
400,694 votes · R+18.9✓ Virginia Foxx (R)59.5%
Chuck Hubbard (D)40.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
403,108 two-party votes · R+17.9 · R+16.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.9%
Kamala Harris (D)41.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
277,547 votes · R+26.3✓ Virginia Foxx (R)63.2%
Kyle Parrish (D)36.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
770,651 votes · R+36.5✓ Virginia Foxx (R)66.9%
David Wilson Brown (D)31.1%
Jeff Gregory (CST)2.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
440,625 two-party votes · R+19.4 · R+23.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.7%
Joe Biden (D)40.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
280,378 votes · R+14.1✓ Virginia Foxx (R)57.0%
Dd Adams (D)43.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
355,512 votes · R+16.8✓ Virginia Foxx (R)58.4%
Josh Brannon (D)41.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
398,716 two-party votes · R+19.9 · R+22.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.1%