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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 22nd District
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Dandiya (D)
51%
chance of winning
Askar (R)
49%
- Average margin
- D+0.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- 2in our database
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Dandiya (D)
46%
chance of winning
Askar (R)
54%
- Average margin
- R+0.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- 2in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Pia Dandiya
Manager of the Apple Strategic Innovations Group (previously ran in the 21st district)
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $2.3M
- From individuals
- $2M
- Spent
- $987.4K
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
Money: FEC, through Jul 29, 2026.
Republican
Casey Askar
Businessman and candidate for the 19th district in 2020
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $4.9M
- From individuals
- $322.1K
- Spent
- $4.8M
- Cash on hand
- $89K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Dandiya | Askar | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Aug 24–Aug 31 | — V | 46 | 44 | D+2 | R+2.9 |
| Tavern ResearchD-sponsored | Aug 10–Aug 12 | 551 LV | 50 | 50 | Even | D+3.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 31, 2026.
The district
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 808,417
- People per km²
- 55
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 42%
- White, no degree
- 26%of adults
- White 44%
- Hispanic 33%
- Black 14%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
366,856 votes · D+9.9✓ Lois Frankel (D)55.0%
Dan Franzese (R)45.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
387,442 two-party votes · R+10.4 · R+8.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.2%
Kamala Harris (D)44.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
272,204 votes · D+10.2✓ Lois Frankel (D)55.1%
Dan Franzese (R)44.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
402,317 votes · D+17.2✓ Theodore E Deutch (D)58.6%
James "jim" Pruden (R)41.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
409,052 two-party votes · D+2.1 · R+2.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.0%
Donald Trump (R)49.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
297,683 votes · D+24.0✓ Ted Deutch (D)62.0%
Nicolas Kimaz (R)38.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
337,850 votes · D+17.9✓ Theodore E Deutch (D)58.9%
Andrea Leigh McGee (R)41.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
333,983 two-party votes · D+6.1 · D+3.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.1%
Donald Trump (R)46.9%
Also on the ballot in Florida
Neighboring districts
FL-9Darren SotoDan GreenR flipR flip72%Rep.79%Rep. FL-17Matthew MontavonGreg Steube97%Rep.92%Rep. FL-19Victor AriasJim Schwartzel99%Rep.98%Rep. FL-20Debbie Wasserman SchultzBrent Andersen>99%Dem.>99%Dem. FL-21James MartinBrian Mast93%Rep.83%Rep. FL-23Lois FrankelDeborah Adeimy>99%Dem.99%Dem. FL-25Jared MoskowitzScott Singer81%Dem.69%Dem. FL-26Nicole LocklinMario Díaz-Balart80%Rep.75%Rep. FL-28Phil EhrCarlos Giménez95%Rep.91%Rep.