DemocraticIncumbent
Analilia Mejia
Incumbent U.S. representative (2026–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.1M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $2M
- Cash on hand
- $88.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
New Jersey › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Jersey's 11th District
Mejia is very likely to win: Mejia wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mejia (D)
99%
chance of winning
Hathaway (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+20.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Mejia is very likely to win: Mejia wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Mejia (D)
98%
chance of winning
Hathaway (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+19.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+31
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Joe Hathaway
Randolph Township Council member, former mayor, and nominee in the April special election
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $806.7K
- From individuals
- $762.1K
- Spent
- $772.4K
- Cash on hand
- $34.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.42 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.77 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 783,770
- People per km²
- 734
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 59%
- White, no degree
- 24%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 17%
- Black 5%
- Asian 12%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
393,905 votes · D+15.0✓ Mikie Sherrill (D)56.5%
Joseph Belnome (R)41.8%
Lily Benavides (G)1.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
401,430 two-party votes · D+8.6 · D+10.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.3%
Donald Trump (R)45.7%
2022
820,992 votes · D+19.0✓ Mikie Sherrill (D)59.0%
Paul Degroot (R)40.2%
Joseph Biasco (L)0.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
441,176 votes · D+6.6✓ Mikie Sherrill (D)53.3%
Rosemary Becchi (R)46.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
428,473 two-party votes · D+17.4 · D+12.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.7%
Donald Trump (R)41.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
322,982 votes · D+14.8✓ Mikie Sherrill (D)56.8%
Jay Webber (R)42.1%
Robert F Crook (OTH)0.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
335,201 votes · R+19.8✓ Rodney P Frelinghuysen (R)58.0%
Joseph M Wenzel (D)38.8%
Thomas Depasquale (OTH)2.1%
Jeff Hetrick (L)1.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
357,474 two-party votes · D+11.1 · D+8.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%