DemocraticIncumbent
Melanie Stansbury
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.7M
- From individuals
- $1.4M
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $403.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
New Mexico › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Mexico's 1st District
Stansbury is very likely to win: Stansbury wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Stansbury (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Okpareke (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+23.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Stansbury is very likely to win: Stansbury wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Stansbury (D)
99%
chance of winning
Okpareke (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+22.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+35
- Partisan lean
- D+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Didi Okpareke
Pharmacist
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.49 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.4 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.4 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 713,264
- People per km²
- 16
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 26%of adults
- White 44%
- Hispanic 42%
- Black 2%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
342,744 votes · D+12.7✓ Melanie A. Stansbury (D)56.4%
Steve Jones (R)43.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
344,853 two-party votes · D+13.0 · D+14.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.5%
Donald Trump (R)43.5%
2022
280,612 votes · D+11.5✓ Melanie A Stansbury (D)55.8%
Michelle Garcia Holmes (R)44.2%
2021 specialEarlier district lines
132,263 votes · D+25.8✓ Stansbury, Melanie Ann (D)60.4%
Moores, Mark David (R)35.6%
Dunn, Aubrey (OTH)2.7%
Manning, Christopher (L)1.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
321,290 votes · D+16.4✓ Debra A Haaland (D)58.2%
Michelle Garcia Holmes (R)41.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
392,832 two-party votes · D+16.6 · D+12.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.3%
Donald Trump (R)41.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
249,162 votes · D+23.9✓ Debra A Haaland (D)59.1%
Janice E Arnold-Jones (R)36.3%
Lloyd J Princeton (L)4.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
284,161 two-party votes · D+8.5 · D+6.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.3%
Donald Trump (R)45.7%