Democratic
Andrew Sneed
Mechanical contractor
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $860.9K
- From individuals
- $828K
- Spent
- $639.9K
- Cash on hand
- $220.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Alabama › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alabama's 5th District
Strong is very likely to win: Strong wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Sneed (D)
1%
chance of winning
Strong (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+19.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+29 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Strong is very likely to win: Strong wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Sneed (D)
2%
chance of winning
Strong (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+20.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+33 to R+10
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Dale Strong
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.7M
- From individuals
- $831K
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.28 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+28: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 746,089
- People per km²
- 71
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 18%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
262,410 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Dale W. Strong (R)95.4%
Write-In (—)4.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
347,286 two-party votes · R+29.5 · R+28.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.8%
Kamala Harris (D)35.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
212,317 votes · R+38.8✓ Dale Strong (R)67.1%
Kathy Warner-Stanton (D)29.6%
P J Greer (L)3.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
264,160 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mo Brooks (R)95.8%
Writein (—)4.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
443,262 two-party votes · R+25.1 · R+29.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.5%
Joe Biden (D)37.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
260,660 votes · R+22.1✓ Mo Brooks (R)61.0%
Peter Joffrion (D)38.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
308,287 votes · R+33.6✓ Mo Brooks (R)66.7%
Will Boyd Jr (D)33.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
282,126 two-party votes · R+34.6 · R+36.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)32.7%