DemocraticIncumbent
Sarah Elfreth
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.4M
- From individuals
- $793.8K
- Spent
- $1.2M
- Cash on hand
- $231.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Maryland › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland's 3rd District
Elfreth is very likely to win: Elfreth wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Elfreth (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Flowers (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+33.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+25 to D+42
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Elfreth is very likely to win: Elfreth wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Elfreth (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Flowers (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+30.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+20 to D+43
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Berney Flowers
Former inter-agency technical advisor for NORAD and USNORTHCOM, candidate for the 2nd district in 2022, and this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $31K
- From individuals
- $25.3K
- Spent
- $28.8K
- Cash on hand
- $6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.68 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.26 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.26 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 777,500
- People per km²
- 490
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 53%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 57%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 17%
- Asian 11%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
399,200 votes · D+22.0✓ Sarah Elfreth (D)59.3%
Robert J. Steinberger (R)37.9%
Miguel Barajas (L)2.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
400,963 two-party votes · D+24.5 · D+26.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)62.2%
Donald Trump (R)37.8%
2022
291,602 votes · D+20.5✓ John P Sarbanes (D)60.2%
Yuripzy Morgan (R)39.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
373,206 votes · D+39.8✓ John P Sarbanes (D)69.8%
Charles Anthony (R)30.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
517,125 two-party votes · D+25.8 · D+21.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)62.9%
Donald Trump (R)37.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
292,880 votes · D+41.9✓ John Sarbanes (D)69.1%
Charles Anthony (R)28.3%
David Lashar (L)2.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
339,675 votes · D+30.2✓ John P Sarbanes (D)63.2%
Mark Plaster (R)33.9%
Nnabu Eze (G)2.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
447,542 two-party votes · D+14.8 · D+12.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.4%
Donald Trump (R)42.6%
Also on the ballot in Maryland
Neighboring districts
MD-1Dan SchwartzAndy Harris97%Rep.95%Rep. MD-2Johnny OlszewskiDave Wallace>99%Dem.99%Dem. MD-4Glenn IveyGeorge McDermott>99%Dem.>99%Dem. MD-5Adrian BoafoChris Chaffee>99%Dem.>99%Dem. MD-6April McClain DelaneyRobin Ficker99%Dem.96%Dem. MD-7Kweisi MfumeScott Collier>99%Dem.>99%Dem. MD-8Jamie RaskinCheryl Riley>99%Dem.>99%Dem.