Democratic
James Russell
Mental health advocate and candidate for governor in 2022 (previously ran for U.S. Senate)
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $5.9K
- From individuals
- $4.4K
- Spent
- $5.6K
- Cash on hand
- $907
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Arkansas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arkansas's 4th District
Westerman is very likely to win: Westerman wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Russell (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Westerman (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+31.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+41 to R+23
- Partisan lean
- R+39
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Westerman is very likely to win: Westerman wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Russell (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Westerman (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+30.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+43 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+39
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Bruce Westerman
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3M
- From individuals
- $974.5K
- Spent
- $1.2M
- Cash on hand
- $4.8M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.88 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.53 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.53 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+39: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 754,660
- People per km²
- 13
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 19%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 20%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
270,253 votes · R+45.8✓ Bruce Westerman (R)72.9%
Risie Howard (D)27.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
274,844 two-party votes · R+40.7 · R+39.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.3%
Kamala Harris (D)29.7%
2022
216,696 votes · R+46.1✓ Bruce Westerman (R)71.0%
John White (D)26.2%
Gregory Maxwell (L)2.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
275,035 votes · R+43.3✓ Bruce Westerman (R)69.7%
William H Hanson (D)27.5%
Frank Gilbert (L)2.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
312,369 two-party votes · R+32.9 · R+37.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.5%
Joe Biden (D)33.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
204,892 votes · R+36.2✓ Bruce Westerman (R)66.7%
Hayden Catherine Shamel (D)31.2%
Tom Canada (L)1.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
244,159 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Bruce Westerman (R)74.9%
Kerry Hicks (L)25.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
277,099 two-party votes · R+31.9 · R+34.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.1%