Democratic
Nancy Mannion
Registered nurse
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $304.5K
- From individuals
- $234.3K
- Spent
- $249.9K
- Cash on hand
- $54.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Pennsylvania › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania's 11th District
Smucker is very likely to win: Smucker wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Mannion (D)
4%
chance of winning
Smucker (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+12.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Smucker is clearly favored to win: Smucker wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Mannion (D)
8%
chance of winning
Smucker (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+12.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Lloyd Smucker
Incumbent U.S. representative (2017-present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.8M
- From individuals
- $234.4K
- Spent
- $2.1M
- Cash on hand
- $608.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.31 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.72 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.72 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 771,541
- People per km²
- 193
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 58%of adults
- White 81%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
403,313 votes · R+25.8✓ Lloyd Smucker (R)62.9%
Jim Atkinson (D)37.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
408,263 two-party votes · R+21.6 · R+20.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.8%
Kamala Harris (D)39.2%
2022
316,826 votes · R+23.1✓ Lloyd Smucker (R)61.5%
Bob Hollister (D)38.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
383,240 votes · R+26.2✓ Lloyd K Smucker (R)63.1%
Sarah E Hammond (D)36.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
395,004 two-party votes · R+21.3 · R+25.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.7%
Joe Biden (D)39.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
279,465 votes · R+17.1✓ Lloyd K Smucker (R)58.6%
Jessica King (D)41.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
313,221 votes · R+27.3✓ Lou Barletta (R)63.7%
Mike Marsicano (D)36.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
332,577 two-party votes · R+26.4 · R+28.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.8%